NFL Week 3: RB Props Betting With More Rushing Yards Than Expected | NFL and NCAA Betting Choices

BET Titans RB Derrick Henry U 83.5 rush yards vs.Raiders (-115 BetMGM): Henry -22-yards more than expected so far this season.

BET Giants RB Saquon Barkley O 78.5 Yards Rush (+105 Project Kings): Since 2021, Dallas has allowed for the most explosive fifth place in the NFL.

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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes


Accelerating yards can be misleading, as getting one yard in the third and two is harder than getting five yards in the third and thirteenth. This is where the RYOE, generated using PFF chart data, can come into play. RYOE adapts to the game situation, how well the offensive line is blocked and how well the defense is at defending the range. Both projected arenas and accelerated arenas During The predictor can come in handy when looking at RB support bets, as we can see which runners are placed in useful places to run and which ones get the majority of runners on their team for being the best.


• Henry’s ability to run is declining: After achieving more than 250 total rushing yards more than expected in 2020, Henry was just above the league average before his injury in 2021. However, he was below average with a -22 rushing total yards above expected even Now this season.

• Modern history is not a kind of bet on Henry: In his past five games, Henry has rushed for 86, 68, 62, 82 and 25 yards, respectively, which means he’s only overtaken once and has a 68 average lunge in that period.

• McKinnon is not used often: Jerick McKinnon is used only in 17% of boss dash attempts. When he is used up, he hasn’t done well – with most of his negative yards dashing more than expected and only one explosive run per season.

• Bosses lead early and oftenIn early touchdowns in neutral situations, the Kansas City Chiefs pass the ball 69.4% of the time, and are second in the league behind the Las Vegas Raiders. This means they won’t run as often, so the load will be low for McKinnon.

• Play the ponies with an extra chest defenderSo far this season, the Colts defense ranks sixth among the most penalized defenders in the league. If this trend continues, we can expect bosses to pass more frequently with the difficulty of getting work done in a running game.

PFF Player Props Tool He has this as a +4.3% edge

• Saquon Barkley is one of the best contestants in the NFL: From a pure impulse perspective, Saquon Barkley is only behind Nick Chubb in total return on equity. This bodes well for more than 78.5 flowing yards, so even if his offensive line doesn’t block him well or he gets into tricky situations, Barkley will be able to beat them due to his top-notch dashing ability.

• Giants will lean to run: In early touchdowns in neutral playing situations, the Giants have rushed into third place mostly in the NFL (59.1%). Against a Cowboys defense that specializes in stopping a pass, Big Blue should continue that on Monday night.

Cowboys defense can give up big plays: Since 2021, the Cowboys’ defense has given up the fifth most explosive run (dushes beyond 10 yards) in the NFL. Barkley is a home run hitter as a pusher and can cut through a large portion of the lunge’s strut in a single load.


Burst yards above the expected were generated using the Extreme Gradient Boost (XGBoost) model. The most important factor in determining expected rush yards is the number of negatively ranked and graded blocks in the play. Significance is tracked by yards from the end zone, number of box defenders, defensive strength, seconds left in the inning, and point difference.

This model can predict 22% of the variance in actual impulse yards and has an annual correlation of 0.21. A brilliant RYOE exploration app for every player can be found here.

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