Against Spreads, Best Bet, Week 4

This season I’m going to break up some of college football’s biggest matches every week and give at least one bet that I love from every game.

Let’s dive into the battle of the SEC teams ranked between No. 10 in Arkansas and No. 19 at Texas A&M.

Arkansas vs Texas A&M Spread, current line:

Best bet prediction for Arkansas State vs Texas A&M game:

In a close match, it is usually best to trust the most explosive attack with a proven midfielder 一 So in this match, Take Arkansas and points.

Bet Now: Arkansas +2

When Arkansas is on the offensive

Arkansas runs a conservative attack, relying heavily on its rushing attack and short-passing match.

Rahim Sanders He is one of the most explosive ball carriers in the country, and has picked up 10 yards or more on 18% of his attempts, the second highest on the SEC.

Through three games, Texas A&M allowed 11 loads for distances of 10 yards or more — an allowable explosive dash rate of 9.6 percent, ranked 41.

The SEC’s quarterback has never been more than KJ Jefferson In the past year (33% blitz rate) and that trend has continued (29% through three games), according to Sports Info Solutions.

However, the Aggies put extra pressure on just two of the 17 losing teams (11%) in last year’s game.

On those two starts, Jefferson was 0-2, but he was 7-13 with 16.3 yards per attempt against the standard press.

Texas A&M has replaced defensive coordinator Mike Elko (he took over as Duke’s head coach) with DJ Durkin, but the aversion to blitzkrieg continues. A&M ranked 85th in the country and 11th in the SEC in its blitz rate (21%).

When Texas A&M is Offense

Jimbo Fisher runs a fairly traditional pro attack and likes to rely on a passing game, but he may not have the quarterback to do so this year.

In 2021, the Aggies had a 50% pass rate in a neutral game scenario, but that rate has dropped to 44% this season, at Campus2Canton.

Fisher made a switch in the middle from Heinz King to me Max Johnson (LSU moved) last week, which reduced errors but not by much.

Johnson is more of a game manager, lacking the mobility and arm to challenge defenses on the field. King was more responsible in terms of decision making, but brought a dynamic skill set.

Over the past two years, Johnson has thrown 15 yards or more in 19% of his attempts, while completing only 32% of those throws, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Due to the professional nature of Fisher’s offense, when the pass game isn’t rolling, it hurts the running game as well, as it allows defenses to stack the box.

Aggie’s ball carriers have faced a stacked chest on 62% of their carriers this year, ranking 106th in the country.

Devon Ashan An explosive playmaker in running backwards, but A&M’s scheme seems to limit it. Acane has stuffed zero or negative yards on 30% of his campaigns this year — the second-highest among running appearances in Power 5, according to Sports Info Solutions.

The Arkansas defense excels at limiting large plays on the ground, allowing 10 yards or more in only 6.5% of attempts, the 14th lowest in the country.

Final Thoughts on Arkansas vs Texas A&M Best Bets

Given Texas A&M’s problems in attack, it’s surprising to see Aggies favourite. In two games against FBS opponents, Texas A&M has only three offensive touchdowns 一 and one of them was only 28 yards, after a turn.

In addition to the matching numbers indicating that Arkansas is the side to take, there are also two directions to bet in our favour:

  • Texas A&M lost three of their four head-to-head matches when they were favorites with a relegation or less last season
  • Arkansas 6-2 against the spread as a candidate under coach Sam Pittman.

That’s a lot of data referring to Arkansas, so I’m taking the Razorbacks and points in this game.

Other college football betting predictions for the fourth week:

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